TRIBE

Team-based Raw Interactions to Behavioral Ensembles

TRIBE analyzes team communications to predict performance outcomes. The system discovers hidden patterns of behaviors—and correlates these patterns with measurable results. Communication patterns serve as performance indicators, revealing early on to a task which teams could fail or succeed.

Using natural language processing and unsupervised machine learning, TRIBE identifies communication topics without predetermined categories, maps how teams distribute their attention across these topics, and finds which distributions correlate with their success or failure. The system requires only conversation data and performance metrics.

To showcase the system, we applied it to two collaborative team tasks. In controlled studies involving hundreds of teams, TRIBE could explain up to 93% of the variance in team performance, by leveraging a dimension reduction method. Teams at opposite ends of this dimension showed performance gaps exceeding 130%.

System Capabilities and Behavioral Analytics

TRIBE transforms unstructured communication into quantifiable behavioral categories through sophisticated analysis techniques.

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Automatic Topic Discovery
Identifies naturally occurring communication themes without predefined categories.
A B C Raw Text Topics

Topics emerge from the data itself, ensuring the system captures what actually matters rather than what we assume matters. The system uses unsupervised learning to discover latent themes in team conversations, revealing patterns invisible to human observation.

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Behavioral State Discovery and Pattern Recognition
Teams naturally fall into distinct communication patterns that predict performance.
Pattern 1 Pattern 2 Pattern 3

The same way that one could detect a speaker's accent in a speech, without being told what to look for, TRIBE identifies patterns that predict performance. Processes communications from hundreds of teams simultaneously, identifying behavioral clusters and performance correlations invisible to human observation.

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Performance Trajectory Mapping
Teams move between behavioral states with quantifiable transition probabilities.
State 1 State 2 State 3 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.2

Teams move between behavioral states like cars changing lanes. TRIBE maps which transitions lead to success and which signal decline, creating a GPS for team performance. The system quantifies transition probabilities, revealing the most likely paths from any starting point.

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Predictive Scoring and Early Warning
Predicts team outcomes with increasing confidence as collaboration unfolds.
Accuracy 47% 76% 90% 1/10 1/3 1/2 Task Progress

TRIBE compares new teams against proven behavioral templates to forecast performance with real-time assessments, it enables intervention early into the mission deployment. Like a medical test that gets more accurate with time, TRIBE predicts outcomes with increasing confidence, enabling timely intervention before problems become irreversible.

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Natural Dynamics Recognition
Identifies which teams will naturally improve versus those needing help.
State Natural Recovery With Intervention

Some behavioral patterns are self-correcting fevers; others are broken bones needing intervention. TRIBE identifies which patterns will self-correct, preventing unnecessary disruption of effective self-organization processes.

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Communication Evolution Analysis
Team communication evolves predictably through different collaboration phases.
Planning Early Mid Late

Team communication evolves like a river changing course. TRIBE captures how discussion patterns shift from planning to execution, revealing the hidden patterns of collaboration. Topic emphasis changes over time as teams progress through different phases of work.

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Domain Agnostic Architecture
The same analytical framework applies across all collaborative domains.
TRIBE Military Corporate Emergency Research

TRIBE's architecture works across military operations, corporate projects, emergency response, and research collaborations. Only the discovered patterns differ—the method remains constant: discover what teams discuss, measure how they discuss it, correlate patterns with outcomes, predict future performance.

The TRIBE Pipeline

TRIBE operates through a systematic process that transforms raw communications into actionable performance predictions. The pipeline progresses through six stages, each building upon the previous to extract increasingly sophisticated behavioral insights.

Step 01
Capture
communications
Step 02
Discover
topics
Step 03
Map topic
distributions
Step 04
Identify
patterns
Step 05
Correlate
performance
Step 06
Generate
predictions

Each stage uses established computational methods in novel combination. Topics emerge through various topic modeling techniques without supervision. Patterns self-organize through clustering algorithms. Performance correlations reveal themselves through dimensionality reduction. The innovation lies not in any single technique but in recognizing that team communication contains predictive signal that can be automatically extracted.

System Showcase

We demonstrate TRIBE's capabilities through analysis of two off-the-shelf datasets from collaborative team tasks: first, a search and defusal scenario, and then, a search and rescue scenario*.

*Artificial Social Intelligence for Successful Teams (ASIST) Program, DARPA, 2020-2024

1. Collaborative Search and Defusal Task

To demonstrate TRIBE's capabilities, we analyzed data from a team task where team members collaborate in a Minecraft search and defusal scenario.

Experimental Design

The study involved 231 three-person teams operating in a Minecraft-based simulation. Each team member was identified by color (red, blue, green) and had specialized capabilities. The task required two distinct phases:

Planning Phase: Teams gathered in a virtual shop where they could communicate verbally to strategize. They discussed approaches, assigned responsibilities, and coordinated intended actions. All verbal communication was recorded and transcribed for analysis. The timer would pause every time team entered a shop, allowing for unlimited number of team planning sessions.

Execution Phase: Teams deployed to the field where verbal communication was prohibited. They could only communicate through placing colored flags visible to teammates. Success depended entirely on the quality of their planning phase communication.

Performance was measured through objective scoring based on successful defusals, with scores ranging from -192 to 1080 points, meaning the team could take hit and lose score in unsuccessful defusals. This created ideal conditions for TRIBE analysis: natural team communication with clear, measurable outcomes.

231
Teams
693
Participants
13
Topics Found
6
Clusters

Dimension Reduction

TRIBE discovered 13 distinct communication topics in the planning conversations, and 6 behavioral pattern clusters. In order to make sense of what each cluster is focused on, we need to know what topic-combinations are forming the behavioral each cluster. The question is how can we reduce these 13 dimensions (topics) that describe the behaviors of the teams into a scale for change in communication patterns of each behavioral cluster?

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a statistical technique that simplifies complex data by finding the most important patterns of variation. Imagine you have 13 different measurements for each team (their emphasis on each of the 13 topics). PCA finds new dimensions—called principal components (PCs)—that capture the essential differences between teams while reducing this complexity. The first principal component (PC1) is the single dimension that explains the most variation in the data, the second (PC2) explains the next most, and so on. Each PC is a weighted combination of the original measurements, where the weights show how much each original variable contributes to that dimension.

In TRIBE's analysis, Principal Component Analysis revealed that despite 13 topics and 6 behavioral clusters, teams fundamentally varied along PC1 (the first principal component). This single axis captured nearly all performance-relevant variation. PC1 represents a specific blend of topics: teams with negative PC1 values emphasized topics 9 and 7 (completion-focused language), while teams with positive PC1 values emphasized topic 11 (role-focused language).

In this dataset, PC1 emerged as the dominant predictor, explaining 93% of performance variance. Other datasets may reveal multiple important components depending on their communication complexity. The key insight is that TRIBE automatically identifies whichever dimensions matter for performance.

93%
of performance variance
explained by one dimension
(r = -0.963, p = 0.002)
134%
performance increase from
worst to best pattern
[(941-402)/402]

Interactive Performance Predictor

PC1 Performance Spectrum

PC1 Composition
Topic 11
+0.481
red, blue, green, get, just
Topic 9
-0.427
ok, forest, desert, done, im
Topic 7
-0.393
ok, forest, go, ready, first

Team Performance Predictor

Move the slider to explore how PC1 position correlates with team performance. Teams on the left (negative PC1) emphasize completion and execution topics, while teams on the right (positive PC1) focus more on role discussion. Below the sliding scale are the clusters with their corresponding average scores.

High Performance Zone Neutral Low Performance Zone
C6
876
C4
941
C3
657
C1
629
C5
449
C2
402
0.00
PC1 Position
650
Predicted Score
C3
Nearest Cluster
Topic Emphasis at Current Position

Note: The percentages show the emphasis level of each top 3 topic (out of 13 total) at the current PC1 position.

Topic 11
18%
red, blue, green, get, just
Topic 9
25%
ok, forest, desert, done, im
Topic 7
12%
ok, forest, go, ready, first

Cluster Performance Analysis

The six behavioral clusters showed dramatically different performance levels, perfectly ordered by their PC1 positions. The bold entries in the table below highlight the extreme performers—the top two highest-scoring clusters (941 and 876 points) and the lowest-scoring cluster (402 points). These extremes demonstrate the remarkable 539-point performance gap between teams with the best communication patterns versus those with the worst, representing more than a 2x difference in effectiveness.

Rank Average Score Std Dev Teams PC1 Position
1st 941 152 45 -1.33
2nd 876 228 40 -1.49
3rd 657 236 30 -0.53
4th 629 296 51 +0.61
5th 449 249 17 +1.46
6th 402 174 48 +1.64
PC1 Position versus Performance Score

Topic Distribution Patterns

The key to understanding PC1 lies in how different clusters emphasized different topics during planning.

Topic Proportions Across Clusters

Critical Differences

Topic 9: Cluster 4 (best) devoted 42.1% of communication to this topic. Cluster 2 (worst) used it only 8%. A 5x difference.

Topic 9 words: ok, forest, desert, done, im

Topic 7: Cluster 4 (best) shows 25.0% emphasis while Cluster 2 (worst) shows only 6.0%. A 4x difference.

Topic 7 words: ok, forest, go, ready, first

Topic 11: Cluster 2 spent 32.1% on this topic. Cluster 4 used it only 5%. A 6x difference in opposite direction.

Topic 11 words: red, blue, green, get, just

Pattern Similarity Predicts Performance

Teams with communication patterns mathematically similar to high performers achieved similar results. The correlation between pattern distance and performance reached r = -0.907 (p = 0.013).

This enables real-time assessment: measure a new team's topic distribution, calculate its distance from proven successful patterns, predict likely performance. The closer the match, the better the predicted outcome.

2. Collaborative Search and Rescue Task

TRIBE was also applied to a Minecraft search and rescue scenario, demonstrating the system's versatility across different collaborative contexts.

Task Design

This study involved 222 three-person teams performing urban search-and-rescue missions. Teams had to coordinate to locate and rescue victims while managing hazards. Unlike the defusal task, teams could communicate continuously throughout the 17-minute trials.

Communication Structure: Teams began with a 2-minute planning phase while locked in the entrance, then had 15 minutes of active gameplay with continuous voice communication.

Performance Metrics: Success was measured by victims saved and their severity levels, creating scores that reflected both speed and prioritization decisions.

222
Teams
12
Topics Found
8
Clusters
21.3%
Variance Explained

Key Findings

While this task showed lower variance explanation, it revealed important behavioral dynamics:

47% → 90%
Prediction accuracy
from 10% to 50%
of task completion
92.9%
of teams change
behavioral patterns
within first 20%

TRIBE accurately found the changes in the behavior since most teams changed behavior after the first 2 minutes of planning, to taking action on the field. While the continuous communication format fostered more fluid behavioral patterns than the planning-only communication format of the defusal task, the strict 17-minute time limit imposed a constraint on behavioral expression that was absent in the defusal task, where unlimited planning sessions were allowed. This highlights how task structure shapes the manifestation of team behaviors and demonstrates TRIBE’s ability to capture these dynamics.

Application Domains and Implications

Military
Operations
Corporate
Teams
Emergency
Response
Research
Groups

TRIBE's domain-agnostic architecture means the same system that analyzes military planning sessions can assess corporate strategy meetings or emergency response coordination. The specific topics and patterns differ, but the underlying method remains constant: discover what teams discuss, measure how they discuss it, correlate patterns with outcomes, predict future performance.

The analyses demonstrate TRIBE's core capabilities and suggest broader applications.

Automatic Discovery: TRIBE found the critical patterns without being programmed to look for them. The system wasn't told that role discussion hurts performance or that completion focus helps. It discovered these relationships from data alone.

Dimensional Simplification: From 13 topics and countless communication patterns, TRIBE identified critical axes of variation. This reduction from high-dimensional data to actionable insight is what makes the system practical.

Quantitative Precision: The variance explanations aren't estimates—they're mathematical relationships. Given a team's behavioral scores, we can predict performance within calculable error bounds.

Domain Transfer: While different tasks show different patterns, the same architecture applies anywhere teams communicate and performance can be measured. Different domains will reveal different critical dimensions, but the method remains constant.

Publications

For more detailed technical information about TRIBE and its applications, please refer to the following publications:

1. Jalal-Kamali, A., Gurney, N.M. and Pynadath, D.V., 2025, May. Predicting Team Performance from Communications in Simulated Search-and-Rescue. In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (pp. 2565-2567).
View Publication →

2. Jalal-Kamali, A., 2024. Team-based Raw Interactions to Behavioral Ensembles (TRIBE): Predicting Team Performance from Communication Patterns (Doctoral dissertation). University of Southern California.
View Dissertation →